Busy Christmas Ahead Still

I was out shopping early this week and I have seen traffic and the stores busier than I can remember. Certainly busier than the previous six years or so. The stores do not have the big sales out yet but they certainly have people shopping. I think this is from several things. Cheaper gas prices have Americans in better spirits. They see more money in their bank accounts from slightly higher wages and more work hours. They also have lower credit balances which mean lower payments and they see that they can spend more. Americans still are not good in investing and thinking about saving. So more money earned means more money spent especially around Christmas.

As smart investors we should see this busy Christmas season and make moves into big retailers. They will have great earnings in January and February. Let's choose the good ones and take advantage before the price goes up in the future.

Japan's Depression and its meaning

Japan announced early this week that they were in a recession again. Their policies supposedly did not work and the economy shrunk. Sometimes though policy takes many years to take its full effect and to see all the consequences that arise out of it. Many media outlets proclaimed that since Japan was doing poorly that the rest of the economy will soon follow. I doubt it. Japan is a big economy but their shrinking is not really a surprise. They have not grown significantly for thirty years and they have a older population. The unemployment rate is really low and maybe with the economic factors currently in Japan they are stuck until another great development.

Here is a good discussion of Japan's announcement from Tyler Cowen. I think his analysis is spot on and really shows we have nothing to really fear from this announcement and can keep living our lives. It does not mean we will have a contraction. But then again it is hard to tell and maybe we are in a time now where growth can not always occur.

BB&T and Banks Getting Bigger

BB&T has been on a tear in buying more banks and expanding their reach. It looks like they are moving from a large regional bank like Regions into a national bank with branches in almost every state. It will take time to expand that far but it looks like it could be sooner rather than later. They just purchased branches in Texas, Northern Kentucky, and now today banks in Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia, and New Jersey. Will other banks also try to expand into new areas is a good question. Does this mean that more banks are ready to grow. BB&T's Kelly King is always talking about changing and growing is the one thing that will make BB&T better. He has certainly promoted this idea and shown how well it works with expanding into new regions. It's the largest acquisition in the banking sector since the financial crisis. Buying other banks and branches is the best way for banks to expand into new areas.

I'm going to bet that other banks will also try to expand. Could be a good sign for banks and financial institutions if more M&A occurs. Might be a time to get in and they are undervalued and underperforming because of government regulation and suits against them.

Disclosure: I work for BB&T

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

The American Economy again created plenty of jobs last month and decreased the unemployment rate. The wages of workers were slightly up. Everything was good news and the market meet it with a whimper. It seems that the market wants more and expects more. The growth while strong and healthy is not spectacular. The market always demurs when expectations are met. Only beats and misses matter. Otherwise it just shows that it is pretty fairly priced and followed. Maybe we should just set lower sights for the growth of our economy.

It is better though to stick with high expectations. We would nit want to revert to the mean and take mediocre results as strong gains. Our economy can do better, should do better, and we should push for policies that allow wider growth and less hassle for businesses. Open up trade, remove barriers, and free movement would be a great start. Let's help everyone in the world with higher expectations and then let us beat those expectations.

Links Worthy of Attention

With the recent switch in governmental power the ever weighty words of Hayek. Always good to remember.

Urban Onshoring: The idea of bringing back tech jobs. This focuses on one company in the South Bronx and one aspect of a possibly bigger movement.

My babysitter extraordinaire when I was younger has a wonderful blog and this post about remembering the real part of people's lives is more important than the online parts. 

The Economist reviewed The Cambridge History of Capitalism is a comprehensive study of the thought of Capitalism. Probably going to buy this soon. I can't stop myself from getting a good book.

A look at WeWork. It's fast rise and its take on coworking.

And finally Netflix is adding new programing. Consistently and regularly. Still think it is a bubble though.

Election Consequences and Investing

As with any election as people and power shifts consequences occur and change the shape of the economy and the country as a whole. It might take years to fully realize the shift or just a matter of days after the formal change occurs. Tonight was a big shift in power in the Senate and it could still be bigger as a runoff is left and not all votes are counted. The electorate wanted change tonight and they will get it. As investors though we might like the change or hate the change we have to see what companies could win or lose from the change. Will corporate taxes be lowered, its a strong possibility and so that will mean higher earnings for all companies boosting stock prices and values. What other things will get the go ahead from the government or receive government subsidies. I'm not sure yet and it is hard to tell until the law comes into effect but we can make guesses of what will occur.

I'm excited to see the new changes will be and it is sure to open up new investment potential.

The Best Day of the Year

Today is so important. We go and get rid of that scoundrel in office and replace him with someone way more palatable. It's the day we support the people who have done a great job in office and reward them with another term. It's also the day we show our support and make our voices heard. It shows that we support our government and system we have and want it to continue as we actively participate in a meaningful way.

Even if the person you support has no chance of winning you should still vote because you might embolden him to run again. There is always the next election to have your candidate win. It shows a smooth transition between those in power. 

No excuses just vote.