Thursday, October 16, 2014

Why I Do Not Own Netflix

Netflix is a bubble as bad as any other bubble. Yes, it went up wildly and yes it produces some really good TV shows now like Orange is the New Black and House of Cards (I really like House of Cards, masterfully done and in the same realm as Breaking Bad). With all that great stuff even then I would not put my money in the stock. It is trading at 91 times earnings way too high for my tastes. There is no way they could continue to sign up subscribers at a rate that justifies that valuation unless they quadrupled the revenue from each subscriber along with gaining subscribers at a fast clip.

It took just one earnings announcement (the one last evening) to send the stock tumbling 20%. A good sign of a bubble and to some investors maybe a signal to jump in because it will keep going up. Wrong it will not be a long term play that will be worthwhile. It has too much competition. HBO wants to move into Netflix's category when they offer subscriptions to non-cable customers.

Netflix is very lax with their subscribtion and allow lots of people to be on one account which hurts their bottom line. I have really never liked Netflix as a stock to own. It has always been overvalued and I am not into wild speculation of that sort. It does not offer a product that can be patented or hard to copy. It has a really good viewing platform but not one that will make lots of money for its investors.

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